A year at the pump: what 12 months of fuel price changes cost a Kenyan small business

Between October 2025 and October 2026, the price of a litre of kerosene in Nairobi rose by KES 65.09, diesel by KES 56.29 and petrol by KES 42.44. We tracked every EPRA pricing cycle over those 12 months, including the two mid-cycle revisions, to see what the year actually cost the small businesses and households that run on fuel.

Nairobi maximum pump prices per litre, EPRA cycle starting 15 October 2025 compared with the cycle starting 15 October 2026.

Key findings

1. Kerosene rose fastest, by 42.1% in a year. It is now KES 219.87 a litre in Nairobi, only KES 7.89 cheaper than diesel. A year ago the gap was KES 16.69, and in mid-May it was KES 90.14.
2. Diesel, the fuel that moves goods, is up 32.8%. It hit a record KES 242.92 in May before EPRA cut it back. At today’s price, a shop owner restocking by pickup twice a week spends about KES 750 more each week on fuel than a year ago (see our worked examples below).
3. Petrol is at its highest level of the period, KES 226.96. That is above May’s KES 214.25, which had been the 2026 high.
4. Prices moved often. At least one price changed in 7 of the 13 monthly reviews, and twice EPRA revised prices within days of announcing them. For a small business, that makes fuel the hardest cost to plan for.
5. Over 21 months the rise is steeper still. Against January 2025, Nairobi petrol is up 28.5%, diesel 36.3% and kerosene 45.2%.

Twelve months of pump prices

The year had two halves. From October 2025 to March 2026 prices drifted down slightly. Then on 14 April EPRA announced the steepest rise of the period, petrol up KES 28.69 and diesel up KES 40.30. A day later it revised them down after the Treasury cut VAT on fuel to 8%. In May diesel jumped by KES 46.29 to a record KES 242.92, and within four days EPRA cut diesel by KES 10.06 and raised kerosene by KES 38.60, after public transport operators petitioned over the risk of kerosene being mixed into diesel. Prices then eased slightly through mid-year before October’s rise, which EPRA linked to the highest import costs since the war in the Middle East began.

The kerosene squeeze

Kerosene is the fuel of lighting and cooking in many low-income and off-grid homes. It has risen in two big steps: KES 38.60 on 19 May and KES 28.49 on 15 October. EPRA’s stated reason both times was the same: a wide gap between kerosene and diesel encourages people to blend the cheaper fuel into diesel.

For a household using five litres of kerosene a week, the weekly bill has gone from about KES 774 to about KES 1,099, roughly KES 1,400 more a month. That is money that no longer reaches the corner shop.

What the year cost a small business: three worked examples

These are illustrative calculations, not survey results. They use the published Nairobi prices and simple, stated assumptions so anyone can check or adjust them.

Over a year, the pickup example adds up to about KES 39,000 more in fuel alone, before any increase in what suppliers charge to deliver goods to the shop. For a small shop working on a margin of a few per cent, that is the profit on a large amount of sales.

Every cycle, in one table

All prices are EPRA maximum pump prices for Nairobi in KES per litre. Stations may sell below these caps but not above. Download the data as CSV.

What small businesses can do

Fuel is a cost no shop owner controls, but its effect on profit can be managed. The practical steps are to reprice item by item as supplier invoices change, to price by margin rather than markup, to keep the most-compared items competitive, to make fewer but larger restocking trips without overstocking, and to record every transport cost so it shows up in the month’s figures. We set these out with a worked example in our guide, Fuel prices are up again: how to protect your shop’s margin.

Methodology

• What we measured. EPRA’s maximum retail pump prices for super petrol, diesel and kerosene in Nairobi, for every pricing cycle from 15 October 2025 to 14 November 2026. EPRA sets these each month on the 14th, effective from the 15th.
• Mid-cycle revisions on 16 April and 19 May 2026 are included as their own rows, because they changed what businesses paid.
• Sources. Each price was taken from contemporaneous reporting of EPRA’s announcements, listed below and in the CSV. Where two outlets gave different figures, we used the one consistent with the previous cycle’s price and the announced change.
• 12-month change compares the cycle starting 15 October 2025 with the cycle starting 15 October 2026. The 21-month comparison uses the cycle starting 15 January 2025 (petrol KES 176.58, diesel KES 167.06, kerosene KES 151.39).
• Worked examples multiply litres used by the published price. They exclude fares, rider charges and supplier transport surcharges, which usually rise too.
• Limitations. Prices in other towns differ by transport distance. Pump prices include VAT, which has been charged at a temporary 8% since April 2026.

Sources

• Automag, EPRA fuel price review January 2026, with 2025 review table, 18 January 2026
• The Star, No change at the pumps: EPRA maintains fuel prices in March-April review, 14 March 2026
• Kenyans.co.ke, EPRA revises April-May fuel prices, petrol to sell at Ksh197.60, 15 April 2026
• Citizen Digital, More pain at the pump as super petrol and diesel prices increase, May 2026
• Kenyans.co.ke, EPRA reduces diesel prices by Ksh10, increases kerosene prices by Ksh38, 18 May 2026
• People Daily, EPRA reduces fuel prices in June 14 review, 14 June 2026
• Kenyans.co.ke, EPRA retains fuel prices until August 14, July 2026
• Kenyans.co.ke, EPRA cuts diesel price by Ksh5, keeps petrol and kerosene unchanged, August 2026
• The Star, EPRA raises petrol by Sh12.93, kerosene by Sh28.49, 14 October 2026
• Tech-ish, Petrol rises to KES 226.96 in Nairobi and kerosene jumps KES 28.49, 14 October 2026
• HapaKenya, Pain at the pump as EPRA sharply increases fuel prices, 14 October 2026